Buffett Indicator email alerts

What is Buffett Indicator?

The Buffett Indicator divides the total value of US public companies by US GDP. Warren Buffett called it “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment” in a 2001 Fortune interview. Above ~100% means the stock market is worth more than the entire economy produces in a year; well above that, valuations are historically stretched relative to underlying output.

Why does Buffett Indicator matter for markets?

It is a slow-moving, macro-level valuation gauge rather than a timing signal — it says nothing about *when* a rich market corrects, only *that* prices have run ahead of (or fallen behind) the real economy. Readings well above the historical range have often preceded weaker long-run returns; readings well below it have often preceded stronger ones.

What is a good Buffett Indicator level for alerts?

75% and 100% mark the undervalued/fair-value boundary, and 150% is the commonly cited “significantly overvalued” line Buffett himself associated with extreme risk. Because the underlying data only updates quarterly, an alert here fires far less often than a daily price alert.

Common Buffett Indicator alert levels

Below 75% — Undervalued

Historically rare in the post-2008 era. Buffett himself flagged levels in this zone (70–80%) as a buying signal in 2001.

75–100% — Fair Value

Market cap roughly tracks the size of the economy — the closest thing this indicator has to a “normal” reading.

100–150% — Overvalued

Equities have outrun GDP by a meaningful margin. Not a crash signal on its own, but a common point to start trimming risk.

150%+ — Significantly Overvalued

Buffett described levels approaching this zone as “playing with fire.” The market has spent extended stretches here in the 2020s, so treat it as a caution flag, not a countdown.

How do Scout's email alerts for Buffett Indicator work?

GDP and the underlying Fed equity data only update once a quarter, so this chart moves in steps, not day to day. Set an alert at a valuation zone you care about — many people watch the 150% “significantly overvalued” line — and we’ll email you the next time a new quarterly reading crosses it.

Click the chart to set a level, enter your email (or stay signed in), and we notify you when Buffett Indicator crosses that line.

How should I read the Buffett Indicator bands?

Undervalued (<75%)

Market cap is small relative to GDP — a zone Buffett himself associated with attractive long-run entry points.

Fair Value (75–100%)

Equity value roughly tracks the size of the economy — the closest this indicator has to “normal.”

Overvalued (100–150%)

The market has outrun the economy by a meaningful margin. Common territory for trimming risk, not panicking.

Significantly Overvalued (≥150%)

Buffett's own “playing with fire” zone. The market spent extended stretches here through the 2020s — a caution flag, not a timing signal.

Frequently asked questions about Buffett Indicator alerts