10-Year Treasury Yield
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Market Stress Monitor
When yields and the dollar rise together, markets rarely break on that alone. Something underneath usually gives first. Here are two backdrop gauges and six of those somethings, each read from a named public source.
2 of 6 triggers with data are at Watch or Stress. Several triggers use a labeled proxy where no free source exists. For washout gauges see Tech Pulse →.
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AStress
10-Year Treasury Yield
10Y Yield
Live data
The 10-year yield is 5.15%, up 0.55 points over three months.
What the U.S. government pays to borrow for ten years.
Everything priced off cheap money, from mortgages to private loans, gets harder to carry as it rises.
Stress signal Above 5%, or up half a point or more in three months.
From FRED (DGS10), daily.
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BCalm
U.S. Dollar Index
Dollar
Live data
The dollar index is 121.4, up 0.7% over three months.
The dollar against a broad basket of trading partners' currencies.
A strong dollar tightens financial conditions abroad and weighs on U.S. multinationals' earnings.
Stress signal Up 3% or more in three months; 6% or more is a squeeze.
From FRED (DTWEXBGS, broad nominal index), daily.
U.S. Dollar Index
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1Calm
Private Credit
Private Credit
Proxy
High-yield bonds pay 3.29 points over Treasuries, up 0.60 over three months.
Stress in the lending that grew up outside banks: funds capping or gating withdrawals.
Locked-in loans funded by investors who can leave are a classic place for trouble to start.
Stress signal High-yield spreads above 4.5 points, or widening fast.
Fund withdrawal limits are reported in the news, not in a data feed. Until one is wired, this tile shows the high-yield spread (FRED, BAMLH0A0HYM2) as the stress proxy.
Private Credit
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2Calm
Auto Loan Delinquencies
Auto Loans
Proxy
Bank delinquency on other consumer loans (which include auto loans) was 2.33% in Apr 2026, 64% of its 2009 peak (3.66%).
Late payments on consumer loans, the category that includes car loans.
A cracking consumer at the bottom shows up here before it shows up in earnings.
Stress signal Within 20% of the 2009 peak is elevated; at or above it is a record-level squeeze.
Proxy: the Fed's delinquency rate on "other consumer loans" at U.S. banks (FRED DROCLACBS, quarterly), which includes auto loans. It is not the New York Fed's 90-days-late auto figure, which covers non-bank lenders and subprime borrowers too and isn't published as a free series.
Auto Loan Delinquencies
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3Calm
Commercial Real Estate
Commercial RE
Proxy
Bank delinquency on commercial real estate loans was 1.53% in Apr 2026, 17% of its 2010 peak (8.76%).
Late payments on commercial property loans held by banks.
Banks hold a lot of this debt, and much of it has to be refinanced at today's rates.
Stress signal Within 20% of the 2010 peak is elevated; at or above it is a record-level squeeze.
Proxy: the Fed's delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans at U.S. banks (FRED DRCRELEXFACBS, quarterly). Office CMBS delinquency, a narrower and more stressed pool, comes from Trepp and isn't free.
Commercial Real Estate
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4Watch
Corporate Bankruptcies
Bankruptcies
Proxy
The weakest companies' bonds pay 13.10 points over Treasuries, up 3.33 over three months. That is the widest in the three years FRED publishes.
How much extra the market demands to lend to the weakest companies (CCC-rated and below), the credits that fail first.
Companies that relied on cheap refinancing fail when it disappears, and their bond spreads widen before the filings arrive.
Stress signal Above 11 points, or up 2 points in three months; 15 or more is a crisis-level spread.
Proxy: the ICE BofA CCC & Lower High Yield spread (FRED BAMLH0A3HYC, daily; FRED publishes only the last three years). No free source counts bankruptcy filings.
Corporate Bankruptcies
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5Calm
A Narrow Market
Narrow Market
Live data
The equal-weight S&P 500 is lagging the cap-weighted index: the RSP/SPY ratio is 0.280, down 1.5% over three months.
The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) against the regular cap-weighted S&P 500 (SPY). When the ratio falls, a few big stocks are carrying the index.
A rally held up by a handful of names has little support underneath it.
Stress signal The ratio down 2% or more over three months; 4% or more is a clear divergence.
Computed from RSP and SPY daily closes.
A Narrow Market
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6Watch
Bank Failures
Bank Failures
Live data
4 FDIC-insured banks have failed in 2026 so far, against 2 in 2025 and 2 in 2024.
FDIC-insured banks closed by regulators this calendar year.
Failures spread through confidence and funding, not just through direct losses.
Stress signal 3 or more in a year is elevated; 6 or more is a cluster.
From the FDIC's failed-bank list, daily.
0 20210 20225 20232 20242 20254 2026Most recent bank failures Bank Closed Assets Small Business Bank Lenexa, KS Jul 17, 2026 $72.9M Kentland Fs&La Kentland, IN Jul 10, 2026 $3.81M Community Bank And Trust West Georgia Lagrange, GA May 1, 2026 $306M Metropolitan Capital B&T Chicago, IL Jan 30, 2026 $261M Santa Anna National Bank Santa Anna, TX Jun 27, 2025 $76.9M
Educational dashboard, not financial advice and not a prediction. Thresholds are judgment calls, written down so they can be argued with. Proxies and gaps are labeled.